Cost Assumptions

The database of cost assumptions is stored in data/costs.csv.

It includes cost assumptions for all included technologies for specific years from various sources, namely for

  • discount rate,
  • lifetime,
  • investment (CAPEX),
  • fixed operation and maintenance (FOM),
  • variable operation and maintenance (VOM),
  • fuel costs,
  • efficiency, and
  • carbon-dioxide intensity.

The given overnight capital costs are annualised to net present costs with a discount rate of \(r\) over the economic lifetime \(n\) using the annuity factor

\[a = \frac{1-(1+r)^{-n}}{r}.\]

Based on the parameters above the marginal_cost and capital_cost of the system components are calculated.

Note

Another great resource for cost assumptions is the cost database from the Danish Energy Agency.

Modifying Cost Assumptions

Some cost assumptions (e.g. marginal cost and capital cost) can be directly overwritten in the config.yaml (cf. Section costs in Configuration).

To change cost assumptions in more detail, modify cost assumptions directly in data/costs.csv as this is not yet supported through the config file.

You can also build multiple different cost databases. Make a renamed copy of data/costs.csv (e.g. data/costs-optimistic.csv) and set the variable COSTS=data/costs-optimistic.csv in the Snakefile.

Default Cost Assumptions

technology year parameter value unit source
solar-rooftop 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit standard for decentral
onwind 2030 lifetime 30 years DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
offwind 2030 lifetime 30 years DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
solar 2030 lifetime 25 years IEA2010
solar-rooftop 2030 lifetime 25 years IEA2010
solar-utility 2030 lifetime 25 years IEA2010
PHS 2030 lifetime 80 years IEA2010
hydro 2030 lifetime 80 years IEA2010
ror 2030 lifetime 80 years IEA2010
OCGT 2030 lifetime 30 years IEA2010
nuclear 2030 lifetime 45 years ECF2010 in DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
CCGT 2030 lifetime 30 years IEA2010
coal 2030 lifetime 40 years IEA2010
lignite 2030 lifetime 40 years IEA2010
geothermal 2030 lifetime 40 years IEA2010
biomass 2030 lifetime 30 years ECF2010 in DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
oil 2030 lifetime 30 years ECF2010 in DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
onwind 2030 investment 1040 EUR/kWel DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
offwind 2030 investment 1640 EUR/kWel DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
offwind-ac-station 2030 investment 250 EUR/kWel DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
offwind-ac-connection-submarine 2030 investment 2685 EUR/MW/km DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
offwind-ac-connection-underground 2030 investment 1342 EUR/MW/km DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
offwind-dc-station 2030 investment 400 EUR/kWel Haertel 2017; assuming one onshore and one offshore node + 13% learning reduction
offwind-dc-connection-submarine 2030 investment 2000 EUR/MW/km DTU report based on Fig 34 of https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/2014_nsog_report.pdf
offwind-dc-connection-underground 2030 investment 1000 EUR/MW/km Haertel 2017; average + 13% learning reduction
solar 2030 investment 600 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
biomass 2030 investment 2209 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
geothermal 2030 investment 3392 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
coal 2030 investment 1300 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 PC (Advanced/SuperC)
lignite 2030 investment 1500 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
solar-rooftop 2030 investment 725 EUR/kWel ETIP PV
solar-utility 2030 investment 425 EUR/kWel ETIP PV
PHS 2030 investment 2000 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
hydro 2030 investment 2000 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
ror 2030 investment 3000 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
OCGT 2030 investment 400 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
nuclear 2030 investment 6000 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
CCGT 2030 investment 800 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
oil 2030 investment 400 EUR/kWel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
onwind 2030 FOM 2.450549 %/year DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
offwind 2030 FOM 2.304878 %/year DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
solar 2030 FOM 4.166667 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
solar-rooftop 2030 FOM 2 %/year ETIP PV
solar-utility 2030 FOM 3 %/year ETIP PV
biomass 2030 FOM 4.526935 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
geothermal 2030 FOM 2.358491 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
coal 2030 FOM 1.923076 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 PC (Advanced/SuperC)
lignite 2030 FOM 2.0 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 PC (Advanced/SuperC)
oil 2030 FOM 1.5 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
PHS 2030 FOM 1 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
hydro 2030 FOM 1 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
ror 2030 FOM 2 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
CCGT 2030 FOM 2.5 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
OCGT 2030 FOM 3.75 %/year DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
onwind 2030 VOM 2.3 EUR/MWhel DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
offwind 2030 VOM 2.7 EUR/MWhel DEA https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data
solar 2030 VOM 0.01 EUR/MWhel RES costs made up to fix curtailment order
coal 2030 VOM 6 EUR/MWhel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 PC (Advanced/SuperC)
lignite 2030 VOM 7 EUR/MWhel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
CCGT 2030 VOM 4 EUR/MWhel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
OCGT 2030 VOM 3 EUR/MWhel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
nuclear 2030 VOM 8 EUR/MWhel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
gas 2030 fuel 21.6 EUR/MWhth IEA2011b
uranium 2030 fuel 3 EUR/MWhth DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
oil 2030 VOM 3 EUR/MWhel DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
nuclear 2030 fuel 3 EUR/MWhth IEA2011b
biomass 2030 fuel 7 EUR/MWhth IEA2011b
coal 2030 fuel 8.4 EUR/MWhth IEA2011b
lignite 2030 fuel 2.9 EUR/MWhth IEA2011b
oil 2030 fuel 50 EUR/MWhth IEA WEM2017 97USD/boe = http://www.iea.org/media/weowebsite/2017/WEM_Documentation_WEO2017.pdf
PHS 2030 efficiency 0.75 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
hydro 2030 efficiency 0.9 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
ror 2030 efficiency 0.9 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
OCGT 2030 efficiency 0.39 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
CCGT 2030 efficiency 0.5 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
biomass 2030 efficiency 0.468 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
geothermal 2030 efficiency 0.239 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
nuclear 2030 efficiency 0.337 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
gas 2030 CO2 intensity 0.187 tCO2/MWth https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php
coal 2030 efficiency 0.464 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 PC (Advanced/SuperC)
lignite 2030 efficiency 0.447 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348
oil 2030 efficiency 0.393 per unit DIW DataDoc http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80348 CT
coal 2030 CO2 intensity 0.354 tCO2/MWth https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php
lignite 2030 CO2 intensity 0.334 tCO2/MWth https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php
oil 2030 CO2 intensity 0.248 tCO2/MWth https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php
geothermal 2030 CO2 intensity 0.026 tCO2/MWth https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/co2_vol_mass.php
electrolysis 2030 investment 350 EUR/kWel Palzer Thesis
electrolysis 2030 FOM 4 %/year NREL http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45873.pdf; budischak2013
electrolysis 2030 lifetime 18 years NREL http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45873.pdf; budischak2013
electrolysis 2030 efficiency 0.8 per unit NREL http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45873.pdf; budischak2013
fuel cell 2030 investment 339 EUR/kWel NREL http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45873.pdf; budischak2013
fuel cell 2030 FOM 3 %/year NREL http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45873.pdf; budischak2013
fuel cell 2030 lifetime 20 years NREL http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45873.pdf; budischak2013
fuel cell 2030 efficiency 0.58 per unit NREL http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45873.pdf; budischak2013 conservative 2020
hydrogen storage 2030 investment 11.2 USD/kWh budischak2013
hydrogen storage 2030 lifetime 20 years budischak2013
hydrogen underground storage 2030 investment 0.5 EUR/kWh maximum from https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/46719.pdf
hydrogen underground storage 2030 lifetime 40 years http://www.acatech.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Baumstruktur_nach_Website/Acatech/root/de/Publikationen/Materialien/ESYS_Technologiesteckbrief_Energiespeicher.pdf
H2 pipeline 2030 investment 267 EUR/MW/km Welder et al https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2018.12.156
H2 pipeline 2030 lifetime 40 years Krieg2012 http://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/136392/files/Energie%26Umwelt_144.pdf
H2 pipeline 2030 FOM 5 %/year Krieg2012 http://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/136392/files/Energie%26Umwelt_144.pdf
H2 pipeline 2030 efficiency 0.98 per unit Krieg2012 http://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/136392/files/Energie%26Umwelt_144.pdf
methanation 2030 investment 1000 EUR/kWH2 Schaber thesis
methanation 2030 lifetime 25 years Schaber thesis
methanation 2030 FOM 3 %/year Schaber thesis
methanation 2030 efficiency 0.6 per unit Palzer; Breyer for DAC
helmeth 2030 investment 1000 EUR/kW no source
helmeth 2030 lifetime 25 years no source
helmeth 2030 FOM 3 %/year no source
helmeth 2030 efficiency 0.8 per unit HELMETH press release
DAC 2030 investment 250 EUR/(tCO2/a) Fasihi/Climeworks
DAC 2030 lifetime 30 years Fasihi
DAC 2030 FOM 4 %/year Fasihi
battery inverter 2030 investment 411 USD/kWel budischak2013
battery inverter 2030 lifetime 20 years budischak2013
battery inverter 2030 efficiency 0.9 per unit charge/discharge budischak2013; Lund and Kempton (2008) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.06.007
battery inverter 2030 FOM 3 %/year budischak2013
battery storage 2030 investment 192 USD/kWh budischak2013
battery storage 2030 lifetime 15 years budischak2013
decentral air-sourced heat pump 2030 investment 1050 EUR/kWth HP; Palzer thesis
decentral air-sourced heat pump 2030 lifetime 20 years HP; Palzer thesis
decentral air-sourced heat pump 2030 FOM 3.5 %/year Palzer thesis
decentral air-sourced heat pump 2030 efficiency 3 per unit default for costs
decentral air-sourced heat pump 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit Palzer thesis
decentral ground-sourced heat pump 2030 investment 1400 EUR/kWth Palzer thesis
decentral ground-sourced heat pump 2030 lifetime 20 years Palzer thesis
decentral ground-sourced heat pump 2030 FOM 3.5 %/year Palzer thesis
decentral ground-sourced heat pump 2030 efficiency 4 per unit default for costs
decentral ground-sourced heat pump 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit Palzer thesis
central air-sourced heat pump 2030 investment 700 EUR/kWth Palzer thesis
central air-sourced heat pump 2030 lifetime 20 years Palzer thesis
central air-sourced heat pump 2030 FOM 3.5 %/year Palzer thesis
central air-sourced heat pump 2030 efficiency 3 per unit default for costs
retrofitting I 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit Palzer thesis
retrofitting I 2030 lifetime 50 years Palzer thesis
retrofitting I 2030 FOM 1 %/year Palzer thesis
retrofitting I 2030 investment 50 EUR/m2/fraction reduction Palzer thesis
retrofitting II 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit Palzer thesis
retrofitting II 2030 lifetime 50 years Palzer thesis
retrofitting II 2030 FOM 1 %/year Palzer thesis
retrofitting II 2030 investment 250 EUR/m2/fraction reduction Palzer thesis
water tank charger 2030 efficiency 0.9 per unit HP
water tank discharger 2030 efficiency 0.9 per unit HP
decentral water tank storage 2030 investment 860 EUR/m3 IWES Interaktion
decentral water tank storage 2030 FOM 1 %/year HP
decentral water tank storage 2030 lifetime 20 years HP
decentral water tank storage 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit Palzer thesis
central water tank storage 2030 investment 30 EUR/m3 IWES Interaktion
central water tank storage 2030 FOM 1 %/year HP
central water tank storage 2030 lifetime 40 years HP
decentral resistive heater 2030 investment 100 EUR/kWhth Schaber thesis
decentral resistive heater 2030 lifetime 20 years Schaber thesis
decentral resistive heater 2030 FOM 2 %/year Schaber thesis
decentral resistive heater 2030 efficiency 0.9 per unit Schaber thesis
decentral resistive heater 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit Palzer thesis
central resistive heater 2030 investment 100 EUR/kWhth Schaber thesis
central resistive heater 2030 lifetime 20 years Schaber thesis
central resistive heater 2030 FOM 2 %/year Schaber thesis
central resistive heater 2030 efficiency 0.9 per unit Schaber thesis
decentral gas boiler 2030 investment 175 EUR/kWhth Palzer thesis
decentral gas boiler 2030 lifetime 20 years Palzer thesis
decentral gas boiler 2030 FOM 2 %/year Palzer thesis
decentral gas boiler 2030 efficiency 0.9 per unit Palzer thesis
decentral gas boiler 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit Palzer thesis
central gas boiler 2030 investment 63 EUR/kWhth Palzer thesis
central gas boiler 2030 lifetime 22 years Palzer thesis
central gas boiler 2030 FOM 1 %/year Palzer thesis
central gas boiler 2030 efficiency 0.9 per unit Palzer thesis
decentral CHP 2030 lifetime 25 years HP
decentral CHP 2030 investment 1400 EUR/kWel HP
decentral CHP 2030 FOM 3 %/year HP
decentral CHP 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit Palzer thesis
central CHP 2030 lifetime 25 years HP
central CHP 2030 investment 650 EUR/kWel HP
central CHP 2030 FOM 3 %/year HP
decentral solar thermal 2030 discount rate 0.04 per unit Palzer thesis
decentral solar thermal 2030 FOM 1.3 %/year HP
decentral solar thermal 2030 investment 270000 EUR/1000m2 HP
decentral solar thermal 2030 lifetime 20 years HP
central solar thermal 2030 FOM 1.4 %/year HP
central solar thermal 2030 investment 140000 EUR/1000m2 HP
central solar thermal 2030 lifetime 20 years HP
HVAC overhead 2030 investment 400 EUR/MW/km Hagspiel
HVAC overhead 2030 lifetime 40 years Hagspiel
HVAC overhead 2030 FOM 2 %/year Hagspiel
HVDC overhead 2030 investment 400 EUR/MW/km Hagspiel
HVDC overhead 2030 lifetime 40 years Hagspiel
HVDC overhead 2030 FOM 2 %/year Hagspiel
HVDC submarine 2030 investment 2000 EUR/MW/km DTU report based on Fig 34 of https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/2014_nsog_report.pdf
HVDC submarine 2030 lifetime 40 years Hagspiel
HVDC submarine 2030 FOM 2 %/year Hagspiel
HVDC inverter pair 2030 investment 150000 EUR/MW Hagspiel
HVDC inverter pair 2030 lifetime 40 years Hagspiel
HVDC inverter pair 2030 FOM 2 %/year Hagspiel